Wednesday, December 22, 2010

Is this closure? The technology equivalent?

I've been having this feeling for a while now. Maybe the last 4-5 months. But, this is going to be the first time I will admit it aloud.

Yahoogroups & Googlegroups are outdated. Blogs, websites are almost there too. Email is fast getting there!

People just don't check emails & groups as often any more!
What do they do instead? They check their SMS, Facebook messages, etc much more often than email! Hotmail and yahoo.. I can probably find 10 regular users (combined) on my mailing list. Gmail.. maybe a lot more.. but even then I'm willing to bet that the people below 20 who use it regularly are VERY few. 8-9 months ago, I was sort of taken aback to find out that a lot of teenagers / less than 21 year olds creating hotmail / yahoo ids. When I asked them why they aren't using Gmail, their response was.. "It doesn't matter which one.. I just need that to get to my Facebook. I hardly check it anyway! If people want something important, they just message me on FB chat, or SMS me if they can't find me online!"

I think it is the new reality. The future is about text messaging, instant messaging, Facebook messaging, and maybe facebook private messaging.

The best observations of the changing times I can probably give are all from my Ultimate Frisbee experience. The first few clubs in India (Chennai Ultimate, Bangalore Ultimate, etc.) use yahoo groups to communicate. The clubs that formed a little later use googlegroups. And the clubs that formed most recently (Pune Ultimate, etc.) use Facebook groups! Thats probably an accurate description of the changing trends & times. All this in a span of 4-5 years!

The older teams (Chakraa, LiveWires, L2F, etc.) use yahoogroups and email to communicate. The newer teams (Stall 7, FlyWild, etc) use purely Facebook groups, instant messages and SMS to communicate.

Chennai Ultimate Frisbee's communications are also moving slowly with the times. 3.5 years ago, we used to be completely Yahoo Groups based. But these days, we use both Yahoo Groups, and the Facebook fan page to communicate news / events. I suspect that even the regulars are increasingly getting their updates from Facebook rather than from our Yahoo Groups. You don't even have to guess about the rest of the people.

I'm waiting to test out the Facebook Messages email service that Facebook will be rolling out. If we find that's stable enough, and offers most of the features that we used to be able to do on yahoogroups and traditional email, Chennai Ultimate will take a bold step towards completely migrating to a Facebook based communication. I believe that going forward, this will help us reach out more effectively to new fans who're looking to be in touch with us, new talent who're looking to start playing, and also provide news about us more effectively to our existing fan base.

I guess in relationship terms.. we call this "closure". We stop hanging on to the past, and accept the inevitable. Now, I'm excited! :-). The future looks bright!

p.s. Don't get me wrong. Email will probably always exist. So will blogs and websites. And maybe even Yahoo Groups and Google Groups. But, I'm talking about the primary mode of communication. Make no mistake. It will be Facebook & SMS.

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Thursday, July 22, 2010

Jeff Bezos speech at Princeton graduation ceremony

Great people have a simple way of saying something important. Something valuable. Something everyone can learn from.

The speech that I've been most impressed by, is Warren Buffet's speech at the Univ. of Florida graduation. That's one speech I don't think I'll ever forget in my life.

I recently read a script of the speech that Jeff Bezos (founder of Amazon) delivered at the Princeton graduation ceremony. A couple of lines just stood out stark in my face. They were almost on the same lines as what Warren Buffet said.

What I want to talk to you about today is the difference between gifts and choices. Cleverness is a gift, kindness is a choice. Gifts are easy -- they're given after all. Choices can be hard. You can seduce yourself with your gifts if you're not careful, and if you do, it'll probably be to the detriment of your choices.


I will hazard a prediction. When you are 80 years old, and in a quiet moment of reflection narrating for only yourself the most personal version of your life story, the telling that will be most compact and meaningful will be the series of choices you have made. In the end, we are our choices.


Brilliantly said. And he gives one of the most amazing examples that even a 5th grade student would understand!

You can find the full speech at the link below

http://www.princeton.edu/main/news/archive/S27/52/51O99/index.xml

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Sunday, March 07, 2010

Even if no one is watching!

Even if no one is watching!

Why do I like Ultimate so much? Have you ever wondered why there is an air of dignity around any Ultimate player even off the field? The simple answer is "The Spirit of the Game" that governs the sport. It teaches me/us conflict resolution in tough circumstances.. without having to involve a 3rd party like a referee. I can trust my opponents to play fair more often than in any other sport. "If you knew you would not get caught, or not be penalized, would you still steal?". Lindsay Hack explains it very well in the article below.

http://www.the-huddle.org/issues/24/even-if-no-one-is-watching/

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Tuesday, January 12, 2010

TMI TMI TMI

Yes.. this is a post addressed to my dear women friends. There is something called TMI and the latest viral campaign of "Breast Cancer awareness by announcing bra colours on FB Status message" DEFINITELY falls in the TMI category! (TMI = Too much information!). Post a fact about breast cancer.. not your bra colour! :-P

To those of you who're going to say "It's a fun way to promote awareness. I don't think it's offensive.", get this right. I'm all for freedom of speech and creativity and all that.. but it was just plain gross to watch my Facebook Friends News feed filling up with all possible colours from people I know.

I was complaining about this campaign to one of my women friends and all she had to say was "Oh grow up! Don't blame us if your imagination is hyper active"

One of the messages from someone on facebook read
My mom's facebook status is: Hot pink and leopard skin.
I'm officially scarred for life!


er....!!! Maybe that will give you an idea of what are the possible messages we could be seeing?

Another friend goes.. "Oh.. you guys are just too insecure and jealous that we girls are having fun".

Maybe we guys should start a campaign to promote awareness on prostrate cancer prevalent in men.
And the more controversial, the better.. right? The more awareness it will create.. right?
Hmm.. maybe all the guys should start posting their.. hmm.. sizes, as their status message as part of this campaign to promote awareness on Prostrate cancer?

What? Let me guess! you're going to say "but we only posted our colours, not sizes". Well, we do get your attention by mentioning sizes didn't we? I'm sure you won't bother as much if we put up colours like the girls' campaign!
Awareness quotient achieved with sizes?
End result achieved?

And if you tell me that it won't trigger any imagination in you, and you're not affected by it.. think again! I'm SURE your life will never be the same again after a colleague posts a 2" on his status message or your kid cousin brother posts a 11" on his :-P. Every time you walk by that colleague at office I'm sure your imagination will scar you with that thought! No matter how hard you try not to!

I'm willing to bet that 90% of the women who "participated" in the campaign didn't spend a minute reading up about breast cancer!
Ladies.. Get a life. Donate something towards Breast Cancer if you want to. But please spare your platonic friends, family and co-workers!

TMI TMI TMI

PS: I'm always a big fan of the fairer sex :-). But, there is still a line somewhere out there..

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Thursday, September 24, 2009

Being honest when no one's looking

I read this article written by a friend's dad.
Really liked it

Being honest when no one's looking

In times of conflict or dilemma, it is personal integrity that tells us what to do.

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Friday, August 14, 2009

Value of money

Recently one of the Ultimate players posted the following video on FB.




Pretty interesting video. And, it brought back memories of an old post I'd read on an Alumni's blog. It took me a while to find the link again (I'd forgotten the Alumni's name and the blog name). I read it again. Same emotions as when I'd read it for the first time 3 years ago when I'd just moved back to India.

http://gyaan.blogspot.com/2004/11/150-rupees-year.html

Now, I don't know if the boy in the blog-post was faking or was really genuine. But, the reason I put it up here is to show that the you-tube video wasn't really just some Ad gimmick.

Once again, I'm reminded of my social responsibilities.

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Sunday, June 21, 2009

Pudiyador

One of our expat Ultimate Frisbee players, Manickam (mostly known as Manix), and his dad run an NGO in Chennai called Pudiyador.
This evening I had a chance to go and visit their Besant Nagar center to see what they do. The intent is amazing.

Pudiyador adopts a community at each of its 3 centers and works with kids and uninitiated adults to enhance learning for the kids. The slum around this Besant Nagar center has people who are primarily dhobis, construction workers, street hawkers, and similar low skilled workers. The low skill jobs necesitate that most folks (both parents) work for long hours. Hence, there isn't much time for their kids typically. The good thing about this slum is that most of the kids here go to school which is typically till about 4.00pm. But, between 4.00pm and 9.00pm till their parents come back, these kids basically just loiter around. They don't do homework, or work on improving skills. It's not a question of incapability, but more a question of motivation and exposure. The school system encourages mugging / rote learning, which isn't the most motivating factor to study. Besides, the quality of teaching is quite poor, and hence these kids don't understand even what they're taught. Their homes are typically a single room with a TV.. (thanks to our Tamil Nadu Government and the free colour TV scheme), and hence offers a lot of distraction.
These kids when passing out of school find it very hard to survive in the real world... where they have to compete against kids who have had exposure to a lot more things. Eg. Art, craft, sports, etc. Hence, they come out with an inferiority complex in some cases, or lack of confidence, or lack of leadership qualities, etc. This is where Pudiyador fits in.
Pudiyador steps in between 5.00 and 8.30 in the evening and facilitates enhanced learning opportunities to the kids of the slum.

You can read more about it in the link below

If any of you want to volunteer to teach a bunch of underprivilidged kids once a week for an hour, please let me know. I can put you in touch with the right person. It can be anything from art to dance to theater to craft, etc. Deepam has already stepped in and is helping these kids learn and use computers. They could definitely use a lot more help. Just 1 hour of your time in a week?
Chennai Ultimate will be hoping to step in soon to teach the kids some Ultimate Frisbee. This will be a program that we will run just like we do at Olcott Memorial School. Teach the kids to play Ultimate and more importantly, the Spirit of The Game (SOTG). This helps in their hand eye coordination, as well as makes them better human beings. The background from which these kids come from.. they are used to breaking / bending rules to get ahead of the next guy. We will hope to teach them to respect fellow human beings, and respect the rules, and get rid of the "Win at all costs" attitude that pervades all around us.

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Thursday, June 18, 2009

Was it worth it?

A short fuse.. is what I was built with. God created me that way.
I've blown up a few times.. badly. Said things in anger, that I regretted later. Done things in anger that people have seen only happen in movies.
One evening, back in October 2001, I decided to change that. It was on that day that I regretted something I said much more than any other times before. From that point of time, I wanted to be someone different. I wanted to be someone with a lot of patience.. someone who wasn't reactive... someone who wasn't blowing up at the slightest of provocation.. someone who didn't lose words easily.
It was a lot of hard work from that day. Every day, every minute, every second I had to work on it. Very consciously. Very deliberately.
I learnt to slow down my speech. I learnt to take a few seconds to think about what I wanted to say. I forced myself to look at things from the other person's point of view. I taught myself to think about how the other person would feel if I said something. I put rules in my head about what I would allow myself to say, and more importantly what I would never say in any situation. If it ever got to the point where I was going to blow up, I told myself I would walk away from the scene. I played past experiences over and over again in my mind. Ones where I blew up, and things went down hill. I visualized myself walking away from such a situation were it to happen again... when my blood is boiling, and when my head is feeling like it is going to explode if I don't say something, or if I don't act.
Many times since that evening, I've been angered. I've felt like I was going to explode if I didn't act. That part, I couldn't stop. Even if I worked on it a million more years, I don't think I can ever stop feeling those emotions. But what I managed to do, was watch the way I acted on those emotions. I have raised my voice in anger, but managed not to spill unnecessary words. I managed to never say anything more than what was needed to convey the emotion.
It is like this.. there is this person I want to be.. and then there is me.. and everyday is a constant struggle to get to this person I want to be. A struggle that I have waged with reasonable success for the last 7 and a half years.
And then 4 days ago.. after years of taking baby steps in the right direction, I let myself down. Someone managed to break me. Someone who I considered a very close friend hurt me so much, that my resolve broke down. It was the same feeling of my blood boiling.. the same feeling of my head blowing. My head pounding on me to react and retaliate.. my senses telling me to not take it standing silent.. my feelings telling me to be a man and have some balls to give it right back.. How could someone be SO inconsiderate and selfish? How could someone so lack any sort of respect for me or my feelings?
In the heat of the moment, I cursed that person. I regretted it an instant later. Yes, sure, it felt good for a few seconds. It felt like I was giving it back. It felt like I finally did what that person deserved.
But, was it worth it? Was it worth 7 and a half years of progress that I made? Was I proud of the fact that I did something I've never done before? Was this person even worth my anger? Was this person even worth giving up on my principles?

No!

All I had to do, was get up, and leave. Walk away from that situation. Not spend an instant more on worthless things. What goes around, comes around. I don' t have to be the one doling it out! If someone stooped to low levels, did I have to go down to that level too?

I shall not forget the 15th of June. A lesson learnt for life! ....hopefully....
My journey starts again. Journey to do what it takes to be that person I want to be.

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Monday, May 25, 2009

I believe in..

The most important thing you have is your word and your reputation. Once lost, they are never regained. - Stephen Ross

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Saturday, May 09, 2009

Boulder ranks once again as top city for quality of life in the US!

Thursday, February 26, 2009

Li's Gaussian copula function - the recipe for disaster

I read this amazing article on Wired. A must read for anyone who wants to understand the financial crisis the whole world is entrenched in today.

http://www.wired.com/techbiz/it/magazine/17-03/wp_quant?currentPage=1

In financial markets, everybody doing the same thing is the classic recipe for a bubble and inevitable bust

In the world of finance, too many quants see only the numbers before them and forget about the concrete reality the figures are supposed to represent. They think they can model just a few years' worth of data and come up with probabilities for things that may happen only once every 10,000 years. Then people invest on the basis of those probabilities, without stopping to wonder whether the numbers make any sense at all.

I totally agree with the last part. If you cannot understand the concrete real world impact of some financial instrument.. it's not worth the risk of investing in it!

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Friday, December 12, 2008

Sport, equality, et al

I love this picture for one thing it signifies. It doesn't matter who you are.. what size you are.. or where you come from. Ultimate is a game for all.

Nothing bonds like sport!

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Thursday, November 13, 2008

Golden rules for that important decision..

For a change, I think I'm going to be posting on a topic that's a little serious.. and more my age :-).

Someone forwarded me this small piece.. and I have to say I knew a lot of these things even before reading this piece. but wish that it had been more intuitive to me, rather than learning the hard way..
I don't know/don't care about the source of this article, nor do I care if it sounds cliche, but it does have some value. I wouldn't call these rules either, but more like things to watch out for!

Golden rules for finding your life partner by Dov Heller, M.A.

When it comes to making the decision about choosing a life partner, no one wants to make a mistake. Yet, with a divorce rate of close to 50%, it appears that many are making serious mistakes in their approach to finding Mr./Miss. Right! If you ask most couples who are engaged why they're getting married, they'll say: "We're in love"; I believe this is the ..1 mistake people make when they date. Choosing a life partner should never be based on love. Though this may sound "not politically correct", there's a profound truth here.

Love is not the basis for getting married. Rather, love is the result of a good marriage. When the other ingredients are right, then the love will come. Let me say it again: "You can't build a lifetime relationship on love alone"; You need a lot more!!!

Here are five questions you must ask yourself if you're serious about finding and keeping a life partner.

QUESTION ..1: Do we share a common life purpose?

Why is this so important? Let me put it this way: If you're married for 20 or 30 years, that's a long time to live with someone. What do you plan to do with each other all that time? Travel, eat and jog together? You need to share something deeper and more meaningful. You need a common life purpose.

Two things can happen in a marriage: (1) You can grow together, or (2)you can grow apart. 50% of the people out there are growing apart. To make a marriage work, you need to know what you want out of life!

Bottom line; marry someone who wants the same thing.


QUESTION ..2: Do I feel safe expressing my feelings and thoughts with this person?

This question goes to the core of the quality of your relationship. Feeling safe means you can communicate openly with this person. The basis of having good communication is trust - i.e. trust that I won't get "punished"; or hurt for expressing my honest thoughts and feelings. A colleague of mine defines an abusive person as someone with whom you feel afraid to express your thoughts and feelings. Be honest with yourself on this one. Make sure you feel emotionally safe with the person you plan to marry.


QUESTION ..3: Is he/she a mensch?

A mensch is someone who is a refined and sensitive person. How can you test? Here are some suggestions. Do they work on personal growth on a regular basis? Are they serious about improving themselves? A teacher of mine defines a good person as "someone who is always striving to be good and do the right ";. So ask about your significant other: What do they do with their time? Is this person materialistic? Usually a materialistic person is not someone whose top priority is character refinement.

There are essentially two types of people in the world: (1) People who are dedicated to personal growth and (2) people who are dedicated to seeking comfort. Someone whose goal in life is to be comfortable will put personal comfort ahead of doing the right thing. You need to know that before walking down the aisle.


QUESTION ..4: How does he/she treat other people?

The one most important thing that makes any relationship work is the ability to give. By giving, we mean the ability to give another person pleasure. Ask: Is this someone who enjoys giving pleasure to others or are they wrapped up in themselves and self- absorbed? To measure this, think about the following: How do they treat people whom they do not have to be nice to, such as waiters, bus boys, taxi drivers, etc.. How do they treat their parents and siblings? Do they have gratitude and appreciation? If they don't have gratitude for the people who have given them everything; can you do nearly as much for them? You can be sure that someone, who treats others poorly, will eventually treat you poorly as well.


QUESTION ..5: Is there anything I'm hoping to change about this person after we're married?

Too many people make the mistake of marrying someone with the intention of trying to "improve"; them after they're married. As a colleague of mine puts it: "You can probably expect someone to change after marriage for the worse" If you cannot fully accept this person the way they are now, then you are not ready to marry them. In conclusion, dating doesn't have to be difficult and treacherous.The key is to try leading a little more with your head and less with your heart. It pays to be as objective as possible when you are dating; to be sure to ask questions that will help you get to the key issues. Falling in love is a great feeling, but when you wake up with a ring on your finger, you don't want to find yourself trouble because you didn't do your homework.

Another perspective...

There are some people in your life that need to be loved from a distance.. It's amazing what you can accomplish when you let go of or at least minimize your time with draining, negative, incompatible, not-going anywhere relationships. Observe the relationships around you. Pay attention...Which ones lift and which ones lean? Which ones encourage and which ones discourage? Which ones are on a path of growth uphill and which ones are going downhill? When you leave certain people do you feel better or feel worse? Which ones always have drama or don't really understand, know, or appreciate you? The more you seek quality, respect, growth, peace of mind, love and truth around you...the easier it will become for you to decide who gets to sit in the front row and who should be moved to the balcony of your life.


An African proverb states, "Before you get married, keep both eyes open, and after you marry, close one eye"; Before you get involved and make a commitment to someone, don't let lust, desperation, immaturity, ignorance, pressure from others or a low self-esteem make you blind to warning signs. Keep your eyes open, and don't fool yourself that you can change someone or that what you see as faults aren't really that important.

Do you bring out the best in each other? Do you compliment and compromise with each other, or do you compete, compare and control?What do you bring to the relationship? Do you bring past relationships, past hurt, past mistrust, past pain? You can't take someone to the altar to alter them. You can't make someone love you or make someone stay. If you develop self-esteem, spiritual discernment, and "a life"; you won't find yourself making someone else responsible for your happiness or responsible for your pain. Seeking status, sex, and security are the wrong reasons to be in a relationship.
What keeps a relationship strong is:

1. TRUST

2. COMMUNICATION

3. INTIMACY

4. A SENSE OF HUMOR

5. SHARING TASKS

6. SOME GETAWAY TIME WITHOUT BUSINESS OR CHILDREN

7. DAILY EXCHANGES (meal, shared activity, hug, call, touch, notes, etc.)

8. SHARING COMMON GOALS AND INTERESTS

9. GIVING EACH OTHER SPACE TO GROW WITHOUT FEELING INSECURE

10. GIVING EACH OTHER A SENSE OF BELONGING AND ASSURANCES OF COMMITMENT

If these qualities are missing, the relationship will erode as resentment withdrawal, abuse, neglect, and dishonesty; and pain will replace.

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Friday, October 24, 2008

Some great speeches / talks

In the last couple of days, I've come across 2 really good articles/videos by imminent personalities Narayana Murthy and Warren Buffett.

I think there's a lot of really good learning that one can take away from both these people.. read/listen to the following if you have some time. Really good stuff..

Narayana Murthy's address to the graduating class of 2007, Stern Business school (NYU)

Warren Buffett's address to the graduating class of 2006, Graduate Business School (UFL)

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Friday, October 17, 2008

Cause and Effect - & Women

Warning: A rant is about to follow. Do not read if you're looking for some entertainment. This is going to bore you to death.

Cause and effect. Why is that some women can NEVER differentiate between the two, when it comes to personal relationships. I write this post out of frustration 'cause now I have experienced this multiple times in the last year. I'm hoping some learned person will educate me on this.

Consider this event.. where a friend (girl in all the cases so far) does / says something that causes some damage to my relationship with them and causes me some grief/anxiety. Now, I try not to react to that event, and let it go. But the same keeps happening over and over again, and I get creamed every time this event happens. First time, I probably will having a talk with the person on how this affects me.. and ask her to not do it. But when this keeps happening over and over again, I'm forced to react.
Now, there are only a few things I can do in this situation
a) Whine, kick, and make a big deal out of it / start advising the person on the "right" way to handle the situation with me :- I personally try my best not to do this. I'm nobody to tell another adult how to behave. And the "right" way is all subjective. What may seem right to me, may not to another person. So, I guess this option is ruled out. Plus, this option would make me feel like a tenth grader! :-P
b) React to the grief/anxiety inflicted on me, and go on offensive mode.. and start giving it back to that person.. 'causing as much grief / anxiety to the person who's doing that to me... just so that they realize the pain they're causing me.
Now this seems like a very childish thing to do. But, sometimes its a very human thing to do.. and I try my best NOT to do this too. Sometimes, in spite of all my efforts, I end up doing this.. which I don't think should ever be justified.
c) Take it as it is (accept it)..
d) Put some distance between me and the situation/person. In hope that the distance is enough to stop causing this pain.. hence solving the problem.


Now, I straight away rule out option (a) and (b) 'cause they're very silly immature options. The only two real options are (c) and (d).
Now, if could do (c).. trust me, I would. But the pain/grief/anxiety is for real.
So, I"m forced to do (d) after clearly explaining the reason for me stepping away.

Now comes the part which I'm eternally STRUGGLING to understand. Now when I step away.. then for some reason.. they get really worked up.. they take it as a sign of me suddenly acting pricy or distant or haughty or whatever.. (when all I'm trying to do, is to save myself of some pain).

The situation goes into a downward spiral from this point. They start behaving irrationally after this point. They make some extreme decisions which totally kill whatever can be salvaged of the situation in the long run.. citing my reactions as the cause for the demise of the relationship.
Now, if they really wanted to fix the situation, all the would have had to do, was to fix the cause of the problem.. which is them.. in the first place.. and everything else will fix itself. Once the cause has occurred (giving me pain), then I have no real choice.. but to step away (which is the effect). If the cause was killed.. then there won't be any need for me to step away.

Stating very clearly..
cause = them causing me grief
effect = me stepping away

I cannot be the cause in such a situation. And I don't see why this is so hard to understand/fathom. It's almost like they don't want anything to do with me.. and then do something to cause me to react.. and then finally blame it all on me.
:-s. Looks like most women (and hopefully not all), will always remain an unreasonable enigma to me.

So, my guy friends.. have you faced such situations before (or am i some sort of freak of nature)?
my lady friends.. please attempt to make me understand this.

If this is a common happening, then it seems like a rather unfair fight that no guy can hope to survive.

[Edit] After a few people asked me, I'm forced to put up this extra note.. this is NOT the girlfriend/boyfriend type of fight. I'd like to put up this notice loud and clear at this point.. that I'm single and available :-P. Dang.. looks like any personal note on men/women has the dangerous potential of taking you out of the singles market when you're actually still single!

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Monday, September 01, 2008

Men and women in humor

One of those forwards that everyone receives.. but I like the creativity shown in these images below, in expressing the same facts :-).

Okay, before people start accusing me of being chauvinistic, I'd like to make the disclaimer that I'm not one. On the contrary I am a big fan of the fairer sex.

Having said that, these are undeniable facts.. There's no right or wrong about the way men and women are.. they're just.. different. So, lets just look at it in good humor and appreciate how men and women are built so differently.
The first one, I never believed was tru, but now that a lot of my friends are engaged/married, and I've had a chance to observe these transitions rather closely :-). Whoever made this must've been totally experienced.



The second one, at least the men's route.. that's surely me!


And finally, the last one.. no explanations required. I wish though that I could flip the picture order.. and put the men's controls below the women's. Just to tell the women that men aren't really that complicated, and so don't have to be worried about so much!


p.s. In my opinion, none of these are true for the whole of mankind or womankind. But in general, for a majority of the people in either sex (meaning more than 50%), these observations hold good :-).

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Sunday, August 17, 2008

The one that got away!

Wednesday, July 30, 2008

Gapminder!

Babynav sent me this link. It's an old video. One of my profs showed me this during a class at ISB. Very interesting!

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Sunday, May 25, 2008

Oil Prices, Inflation, Dollar Exchange Rates

Oil prices touch $135. Inflationary pressure is highest today across the world. Food prices are shooting up. India is seeing the highest inflation in the whole of Asia; about 7.5%. All my macro-economic lessons from my B-school classes are flashing before my eyes. I belong to the school of thought which believes in free markets with minimum government intervention in the form of subsidies or price-caps.
India has been the prime example of the OPPOSITE of a free market for the longest of times. This period was long known as the lisence raj! Ofcourse, once India decided to throw open its market to foreign investors, there has always been this tension of what to throw open to the free market, and what to subsidize/apply price caps. Today, for example, medicines and health care products are heavily price capped. Fuel is heavily subsidized. If the government let prices of both these important sectors float, a major portion of the population which lies under the poverty line will be seriously affected in the short term, before the free market kicks in and responds. Ofcourse, if you were the ruling party, you'd never want to make this move 'cause this is sure to get you overthrown the next term. Most of the masses, which are directly affected by the initial surge in prices of the free market, do not understand the broader macro-economics behind such a policy change. They would hold the government accountable for the high prices they are paying (in the short term) and this would cause government instability which in term would put the price caps/subsidies right back in place. So, in effect, the price caps and subsidies are here to stay for a while atleast.
However, today, the fuel subsidy is the one that is due to change very quickly. Due to the subsidy/price-cap policies in many countries in Asia, demands for fuel haven't come down in the last couple of years. It has only gone up! This should not be the case 'cause there is primarily an increas in demand, when the supply has remained constant. There HAS to be a price change according to basic economics. The rest of the world (Europe and US) have seen negative growth in demand for fuel becauses the prices have almost doubled now! It was $2.10 per gallon when I left the US in 2006 March. Today in May 2008, i think the fuel prices are hitting almost $4 per gallon. In India on the other hand, the price has gone up from Rs. 42 per liter to Rs. 48 I think. This can't go one forever??
We are already seeing signs of change across Asia (which is where most of the fuel price caps/subsidies from governemnts exist) . Indonesia has raised reduced fuel subsidy and hiked its fuel price. So have Sri Lanka and a few other Asian countries. India & China will soon follow suit. On the contrary to what a lot of people think of this being a bad thing.. I love this move! This would give the most populated portion of the world a little chance to feel the heat of the increasing price. This will temper down the demand for fuel from this side of the world. Fuel suddenly will become more expensive to everyone, and they will try to cut down on the usage of fuel. This will suddenly make alternate sources of energy more viable. More solar energy and bio-fuel energy will be consumed as compared to fossil fuels! This will force more money to be pumped into innovating in solar energy and other alternate sources. Great! All the better for our planet!

On a somewhat similar note, the other big deal is the gigantic inflation world over on food prices. Food prices are soaring. America is blaming India and china for increased food consumption. India rubbished US's claims by showing that US has suddenly increased it's bio-fuel consumption (which means more and more food like corn is being used to make bio-fuel), hence driving demand of food through the roof! But, then, I have asked myself why such high fluctuations in food prices suddenly. Shouldn't it have been a little more gradual? So gradual, that we shouldn't be noticing it. An article I read on the Business Standard a couple of days ago made me understand things a little better. The buying power of India and China have gone up. Hence, a Rs. 1 or Rs. 2 increase in food prices isn't noticed as much as it would've been noticed 10 years back (demand for food has become lot more. Which means, according to the free market theory, there has to be a drastic change in price to even affect the demand.

The future kind of gives me the creepies. Let's see where all this is headed!

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Wednesday, March 05, 2008

Nice read

One of my friends showed me this blog she'd been reading for a while now. This is the blog of someone who has also moved back to India after being a while in the US.

Pretty good stuff. I like her style of writing. Found her posts on "I'm getting married" very cool.. Check them out here.

A must read.. the entire section above.

Su - whoever you are.. it's amazing how you can admit to yourself and to the world outside about how exactly you feel. It takes a lot of guts and I guess that's why you are appreciated so much! :-)

[Edit] Loved this post on One life, two scenarious. Hahahaha! Come on you desis.. I'm willing to bet that there aren't any of you who haven't thought about this!! Admit it!

[Edit 2] Also enjoyed reading the following posts (titles paraphrased by me :-P)
Then and now..
Embarrassed to admit that I"m not single anymore
Would you like to join me for a walk? I'm headed that way?

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